The worst ever flood in the last 80 years, which has inundated almost a fifth of the country, and which has been described by the United Nations (UN) as "one of the worst humanitarian disasters" in UN history, is bound to impact adversely on every single person – either directly or indirectly – in Pakistan, potentially endangering the very structure of the nation. More alarmingly, with the Government failing to cope adequately with the calamity and once again allowing terrorist and Islamist extremist formations to ‘help’ the people, there is every possibility of even greater entrenchment of such groupings among a widening section of the masses. Significantly, these moves will dilute elements of Islamabad’s ‘war on terror’ and will enormously aid militants in expanding their capacities and operations.

Unexpected and unprecedented rains in end-July first flooded Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (KP, formerly known as North West Frontier Province). The water subsequently made its way down the Indus River system, inundating the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), Punjab, Balochisatn and Sindh. At least 1,745 people have died in the natural calamity, which has affected more than 21 million people. Giving details of the disaster, Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani, on September 1, 2010, declared that the unprecedented floods had caused losses worth USD 43 billion to the country. He added that some 1,000 bridges and 4,000 kilometres of roads had been damaged by the water.

Despite the political rhetoric, however, Islamabad’s response to the crisis has been slow and lacklustre. The country already had almost 3.3 million internally displaced persons (IDPs) as a result of sweeping and indiscriminate ‘counter-terrorism’ operations, and is estimated to have added another 2.2 million to this number as a result of the floods. Complaints about the callousness of approach and indifference of the authorities, both in Islamabad and the respective Provinces, have been widespread.

Even the international community has failed to deliver in the appropriate manner. The United Nations, which initially urged the international community to provide USD 460 million, and doubled this estimate later, has so far received pledges of just USD 325 million towards relief aid for Pakistan. The international community has also made some direct donations and pledges to the country, taking total pledges to USD 1 billion. However, according to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), Pakistan has so far received just USD 291 million in aid from the international community. It is not clear what proportion of this aid has actually reached the target populations, and there are widespread allegations of corruption and the siphoning out of funds. The Pakistan Government has conceded that, till now, more than a million flood-affected people have received no relief at all. Meanwhile, the Tehreek-e-Taliban (TTP) has urged the Pakistan Government to reject Western aid for flood victims, claiming that the monies would only be siphoned off by corrupt officials.

With official and international relief operations failing to deliver, militant groups, including the Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami (HuJI), the Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM), the Harkat-ul-Mujahideen (HUM), the Jama’at-ud-Da’awa (JUD), the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT), and radical Islamist political formations such as the Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI), are taking advantage of the flood situation, coming to the fore in collecting funds for ‘flood relief’. Reports indicate that some foreign funding, including contributions from Saudi Arabia, could flow directly to these organisations and through them, eventually, to al Qaeda and its network of affiliates.

The risks of further militant mobilisation through relief operations are manifest and significant. As Abdul Jabbar, 50, whose home was destroyed in Mingora town in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, commented, "The Taliban are bringing us rice. We are hungry. People here have simple lives and are easily influenced. They have short memories and don't remember the blood spilled when the Taliban were more active here." Worryingly, the TTP, according to reports, is attempting to enlist 50,000 new fighters in return for food and medicine. Interior Minister Rehman Malik has emphasised that more aid was needed to stop terrorists from becoming heroes, saying, "There's huge need. Desperation gives birth to terrorism." President Asif Ali Zardari on August 24, also warned that the TTP could take advantage of the crisis and could kidnap children dislocated by the flooding to put them into terrorist training camps. Earlier, on August 19, expressing the fear that the children of flood-affected people and orphans could end up at terrorist training camps, he had noted, "We are giving them everything we’ve got. There is a possibility that some negative forces would exploit this situation. For example, militants can take orphaned babies and put them in terror training camps."

An unnamed senior US official also noted, on August 26, "There are certainly clear indications that the insurgents and affiliated groups are trying to use the flood and the relief from the flood to try to gain support for their broader effort of being able to control large parts of Pakistan... They're delivering aid. They bring money. They bring food."

Taking advantage of the floods, the militants are also relocating themselves. Significantly, the KP Government has demanded that the Federal Government launch an operation against militants who are regrouping in FATA to attack KP and Punjab. "TTP terrorists have started targeting settled areas of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa once again…," KP Information Minister Mian Iftikhar Hussain stated on September 7. "Security Forces should now focus on terrorists’ activities rather than the flood (relief) activities. TTP are taking advantage of the flood situation and have restarted killing innocent citizens," he added. Hussain added that any further delay in operations against the TTP could put the whole country at risk, and that TTP-affiliated groups had once again strengthened their presence in Darra Adamkhel, Khyber, Mohmand and the Peshawar suburbs.

Though it is quite evident that militants have ‘utilised’ the floods to their own advantage, some damage has also been inflicted on al Qaeda, the Afghan Taliban, TTP and various Punjabi terrorist organizations as a result of the floods, though its exact quantum is difficult to estimate. A substantial proportion of the training camps of these groups Afghan Taliban, were located in areas which are presently under water. However, the Afghan Taliban, which operates from the Quetta area of Balochistan, has not been significantly affected, as the flood has had only marginal impact in these areas. The Afghan Taliban has been able to sustain its operations in Afghanistan even after the deluge.

Nevertheless, the intensity of the floods has failed to mitigate the intensity of terrorism in Pakistan. According to the South Asia Terrorism Portal database a total of 874 people were killed in terrorism related violence in the month of July, when the flood started to create havoc. As the floods peaked in August, fatalities came down to 320 – but principally because of a decline in terrorist fatalities, as Army operations were suspended under the impact of the natural catastrophe. Fatalities categorised as ‘terrorist’ declined from 618 in July, to 177 in August. With the waters receding, terrorist activities have again gathered force, with fatalities touching 300 in just the first twelve days of September, including 95 ‘terrorists’. While 44 major incidents (involving three or more than three killings) were recorded in July, the number came down to 24 in August, but was up at 20 during by September 12. The number of suicide attacks in these months stands at five, two and five respectively.

Alarmingly, it is for the first time since January 2009 that the number of civilians killed during a month has been more than the militants killed, indicating that the militants are on rampage even while military operations have been enormously hampered. The precarious flood situation has led to massive deployment of the Army in affected areas, with some 60,000 troops deployed for relief and rescue operation. Mohammed Anwar, a soldier, reportedly stated, "We are stretched to the limits. The Government has pulled thousands of soldiers away from Swat to help in relief across Pakistan. So the Taliban have returned with bags of money. It was a war we were winning – and because of the flood we are losing it again." Meanwhile, reports indicate that the Army’s planned operations in the North Waziristan Agency in FATA will be delayed due to the devastating floods.

This is a disaster of major proportions, and will have long-term impact on the capacities of terrorist groupings and the state’s agencies, and consequently on the trajectory of terrorism and the stability of the state in Pakistan. As the flood waters recede, the challenge of managing diseases, IDPs and massive rehabilitation and reconstruction work will be compounded by rising depredations of significantly strengthened terrorist formations, even as Pakistan’s chronic economic crisis worsens. As in the earthquake of October 8, 2005, the state in Pakistan has chosen to look the other way as Islamist terrorist and extremist formations take advantage of the state’s failure to deliver efficient relief to the affected populations. The current catastrophe is of a far greater magnitude than the calamity of 2005, and the advantages that will eventually accrue to the terrorists will be comparably greater.