Debate over Theory in Sociology-Emergence of social theory

Along with related ‘social sciences’, sociology emerged as a separate academic discipline in the nineteenth century. However, sociological thought (the capacity to reflect upon and to think critically about a specifically ‘social’ dimension to human affairs) has its roots in much earlier periods. In this chapter, we look specifically at the highly influential thought of the European Enlightenment and at its development into the early 19th century.

New ways of thinking about societies began to emerge during the European Enlightenment of the eighteenth century. A new, critical approach to intellectual inquiry developed which provided the foundations for the development of specifically social scientific approaches to the understanding of social processes. Hereafter, we look at some of the key ideas and intellectual developments that occurred during this period.

What was the Enlightenment?

The Enlightenment refers to a period of European intellectual history that has its beginnings in the early years of the eighteenth century. Many of the most important thinkers, movements and projects associated with the Enlightenment were based in France. However, Enlightenment thinkers were also active in most of the major European states of the day.

During this period a new framework of ideas about human beings and their societies was developed in the work of a wide variety of thinkers. In particular, a new preoccupation with the social world emerged. This began to be seen as a specific and important realm of human activity. This focus on the social world generated new questions about human history, political and economic activity, and forms of social interaction. This questioning of the social world was based in a new spirit of inquiry that no longer looked to tradition, to ‘classical’ authors or to religious texts for certain knowledge. Instead, rational methods of inquiry sought to explain how and why the specific conditions of the present had arisen and, importantly, what might be done to change these conditions for the better. Enlightenment thinking took place within a broad paradigm in which certain basic tenets were accepted. A paradigm is a set of interconnected ideas, values, principles and facts within which coherent theories (attempts to describe and to explain phenomena) are developed.

Hamilton (1992: 21−22) argues that key aspects of the Enlightenment paradigm included:

• Reason: the fundamental importance of reason and rationality as ways of organising knowledge were stressed.

• Empiricism: this is the idea that all thought and knowledge about the natural and social worlds is based on what we can apprehend through our senses. Much Enlightenment thought relied upon using both rational and empirical methods.

• Science: this is the idea that the only way to expand human knowledge is through those methods (experimental, etc.) devised during the ‘scientific revolution’ of the seventeenth century.

• Universalism: the idea that reason and science are applicable in all circumstances and that they can provide explanations for all phenomena in all circumstances. Science in particular was thought to uncover universal laws.

• Progress: this is a key idea of the Enlightenment. Here, it was believed that human beings could improve their natural and social conditions through the application of reason and of science. The result would be an ever-increasing level of happiness and well-being.

• Individualism: the idea that the individual is paramount and that his or her individual reason cannot be subject to a higher (possibly irrational) authority (such as the Church) or traditional knowledge.

• Toleration: the idea that all human beings are essentially the same and that the beliefs of other cultures or ‘races’ are not necessarily inferior to those of European Christianity.

• Freedom: opposition to the traditional constraints on belief, expression, trade, social interaction and so forth.

• Secularism: another key aspect of Enlightenment thought, this is opposition to traditional religious knowledge and to metaphysical speculation.

• Anti-clericalism: opposition to the Church, organised religion, superstition and religious persecution.

• Enthusiasm for technological and medical progress: an enormous enthusiasm for scientific discovery and its practical application in the fields of technology and medicine.

• A desire for political change and reform: Enlightenment thinkers were not democrats, but they wished to see constitutional and legal reforms in the states in which they lived.

• A belief in the pre-eminence of empirical, materialist knowledge: a desire to uncover the real reasons for the ways that societies operate; the model used was derived from the natural sciences.

The Enlightenment was largely the ‘work of three overlapping and closely linked generations’ of thinkers (Hamilton, 1992:25). The first of these included the French thinkers Voltaire (1694–1778) and Montesquieu (1689–1755) and was strongly influenced by the work of the English political philosopher John Locke (1632–1704) and scientist Isaac Newton (1642–1727). For this generation of thinkers, rational inquiry based on the natural sciences and a critique of the social and political institutions of ‘absolutist’ monarchy was important. The second generation included the Scottish philosopher David Hume (1711–76) and French philosophers Rousseau (1712–78) and Diderot (1713–84). It was more explicitly ‘anticlerical’ and continued and developed the interest in the application of scientific method to ‘moral’ (or social) issues developed by members of the first generation. The third generation included the German philosopher Kant (1724–1804) and Scottish moral philosophers Adam Smith (1723–90) and Adam Ferguson (1723–1816).

From this point Enlightenment thinking ceased to be quite so general and a series of more specialised ‘proto-disciplines’ began to emerge: these included epistemology, economics, sociology and political economy. Although Enlightenment thought was not in any precise sense consistent, it is usual to refer to the entire period as the ‘Age of Enlightenment’. This clearly carries the connotation that it was a period that saw itself as emerging into the light from a ‘dark age’ of superstition and ignorance.

There had been speculation about human beings and their social, political and historical circumstances. However, it was also the case that such speculation tended to assume that societies and civilisations passed through (inevitable) cyclical stages of growth and decline and that nothing essentially new was ever likely to appear. By the eighteenth century, however, many educated Europeans began to sense that the societies they lived in were undergoing unprecedented changes.

The development of social theory

It was during the eighteenth century that a number of different thinkers began to investigate the social world more systematically. Social, cultural and political arrangements began to be thought of as the result of complex processes that were not immediately obvious from casual observation. Neither could they be explained through the study of what ancient authors had to say. This was partly as a consequence of the profound changes that were at work in the European societies of the eighteenth century. The sociologist Karl Polanyi described these changes as ‘the great transformation’ and argued that they were part of a fundamental transformation of social, economic and political life which gave birth to the ‘modern’ world. Polanyi argued that this transformation was well underway by the middle of the eighteenth century. The period of the Enlightenment can therefore be seen as one of transition from ‘traditional’ to ‘modern’ forms of society. The new preoccupation with developing forms of explanation (‘theories’) for how and why societies work in the ways that they do can be seen as a response to these unprecedented changes.

Awareness of these changes led to a desire to understand and to account for them. We have already seen that older forms of explanation began to be considered inadequate to this task. One of the consequences of this was that the study of societies and their development became more closely related to the scientific study of the natural world and to draw on similar methodologies. The scientific revolution of the seventeenth century had, in the work of Isaac Newton, for example, revolutionized the understanding of the natural world and science was held in very high esteem. It is unsurprising therefore that the methods that natural scientists had developed should be put to use to explore aspects of the social world. The natural sciences were thought to provide a model for disinterested inquiry. They pointed to the possibility of a rational and empirically based method for creating a form of knowledge that was not conditioned by religious dogma or tradition (Hamilton, 1992: 43).

The use of methods and ideas derived from the natural sciences is extremely important but it also raises problems that continue within social scientific work. As we have seen, the Enlightenment was to a large extent based on humanitarian principles and a desire to change and to improve social institutions. Social institutions were felt to have been dominated by attitudes based on religious dogma and unthinking forms of tradition. Change and improvement were to be achieved firstly by applying critical and rational methods of inquiry to these institutions, thereby exposing their foundational basis in oppressive or irrational modes of thought.

This is an important point as it opens up a very interesting problem. The use of methods of inquiry based on the natural sciences was intended to produce objective forms of knowledge. However, the Enlightenment itself was based in a moral imperative to improve society. In other words this moral dimension of Enlightenment thought was rooted in a particular set of values. In this sense, the Enlightenment can be seen as a normative1 project. Scientific inquiry on the other hand regarded itself as a disinterested and value-free pursuit that was interested solely in the discovery of facts in the form of objective ‘laws’. One of the blind spots of Enlightenment thought was its inability to recognise that the type of scientific inquiry that it espoused was incapable of providing an objective basis for its moral and ethical values. 

The emergent social sciences (they were called ‘moral sciences’ during this period) that developed across the eighteenth century in the work of Enlightenment thinkers needed two basic conditions in order to develop coherent areas of study. Both of these conditions were derived from the natural sciences. The first precondition is naturalism, which is the notion that cause and effect sequences fully explain social phenomena (as opposed to metaphysical or spiritual influences). Secondly, the control of prejudice was felt to be necessary if inquiry was to be value-free.

Enlightenment and the question of ‘society’?

As we have seen, Enlightenment thinkers initially tended to make use of scientific method in an attempt to uncover the basis of social life in an underlying and unchanging ‘human nature’. So, although the Enlightenment represented a considerable break with earlier forms of inquiry, it continued to assume that social formations and processes were essentially derived from ‘human nature’.

This idea was present, for example, in the work of the seventeenth century English philosophers Thomas Hobbes (1588–1679) and John Locke (1632–1704). Both wrote extensively about social and political issues from a secular and an historical perspective. That is, they conceived of human affairs (human social and political arrangements) strictly in their own terms in much the same ways that later Enlightenment thinkers would. Both saw them as produced by human beings and as having definite historical conditions and as such they were thought to be susceptible to positive change. In other words, these positive changes would follow from human beings reflecting critically on their societies and the ways that they functioned.

Both Hobbes and Locke based their ideas on the notion that social and political arrangements are determined by a fixed and unchanging human nature. They both argued that in an original, pre-social ‘state of nature’, human beings would have had specific characteristics. Famously, Hobbes deduced that in a ‘state of nature’ human beings would be war-like and violent (as a direct and inescapable consequence of their ‘nature’). According to Hobbes, this unchanging nature means that if left to themselves, human beings will always revert to violence in order to get what they want and that the social order will be threatened with collapse. As a consequence of this, Hobbes advocated the imposition of a strong state. We can see therefore that Hobbes’ theory about human beings and their societies is based on the idea that it is human ‘nature’ that determines the way that societies operate.

This view of human beings was challenged during the (generally much more optimistic) period of Enlightenment by one its major thinkers, the philosopher Jean-Jacques Rousseau (1712–78). In the Discourse on the Origins of Inequality, Rousseau argued that the ‘state of nature’ as imagined by Hobbes was in fact based on faulty reasoning. Hobbes’ ‘state of nature’, Rousseau argued, was based on the values and tendencies evident in human beings living in contemporary societies. Rousseau saw the greed and violence of mankind as being the products of society rather than ‘nature’. Writing of Hobbes and other thinkers who had attempted to describe the ‘state of nature’ Rousseau argued that: Every one of them, in short, constantly dwelling on wants, avidity, oppression, desires and pride, has transferred to the state of nature ideas which were acquired in society; so that, in speaking of the savage, they described the social man. (Rousseau, 1999:9] This is an important point, as it highlights one of the recurring themes within Enlightenment thought about the relationship between ‘nature’, ‘human nature’ and the social world. In The Discourse, Rousseau engaged in a ‘thought experiment’ of his own and attempted to deduce what human beings in a ‘natural’ state might have been like. However, he was aware of the great difficulty of attempting to discover what a ‘natural’ (that is a presocial state might look like): The investigations we may enter into, in treating this subject, must not be considered as historical truths, but only as mere conditional and hypothetical reasonings…For it is by no means a light undertaking to distinguish properly between what is original and what is artificial in the actual nature of man, or to form a true idea of a state which no longer exists, perhaps never did exist, and probably never will exist…(Rousseau, 1999:10) In other words, Rousseau claims that it is enormously difficult to decide what is social (‘artificial’) and what is natural (‘original’) in human beings.

In the writings of Smith’s The Wealth of Nations, Adam Smith argues that the selfinterested

economic transactions of individuals are responsible for the creation of a large-scale self-regulating market economy. This emerges as an unintended consequence of the activities of human beings engaged in trade with one another. The interactions of people in their daily activities of trading and exchanging goods have consequences which go far beyond the level of the individuals involved. Thus, Smith’s analysis of the commercial society of the eighteenth century proposes that it has emerged as a consequence of activities that, taken together, make up something that is more than the sum of these individual parts.

However, as Callinicos argues, Smith’s analysis (and the similar analyses of some other Enlightenment thinkers) accorded a ‘privileged status’ to human nature. Remember, Smith argued that human beings have a ‘natural’ disposition to trade and the widespread division of labour and the development of commercial society are an ‘unintended consequence’ of this. Rather like Hobbes, therefore, Smith has attempted to ‘base concrete accounts of social institutions and behaviour on generalisations about human nature’.

Rationalist optimism

We have seen that in the work of several important Enlightenment thinkers ideas about the relationship between political, economic and social arrangements began to be thought of in significantly new ways. Generally, the Enlightenment period is thought of as one of ‘rationalist optimism’ in which it was assumed that ‘progress’ would follow from the discovery of new or more rational ways of organising societies. This optimism was based on the assumption that progress was genuinely possible through the use of reason. A classic statement of this was to be found in Kant’s text: ‘What is Enlightenment?’ and it is worth looking at this in detail to see how Enlightenment thinkers envisaged the use of reason benefiting ‘humanity’ in general.

By the end of the eighteenth century, the French Revolution, which began in 1789 and was initially greeted with much optimism, had proved a powerfully disillusioning experience for thinkers who wished to see ‘progress’ and enlightened reform of existing social institutions. At first, the Revolution was seen as ‘an opportunity for enlightened men to bring about a more rational, just and humane organisation of the affairs of mankind’ (Hamilton, 1992:49). It appeared that many of the ideas that enlightened thinkers had discussed throughout the century were being realised as rights and liberties (freedom of speech, freedom of the press, etc.) and were enshrined in a new constitution. However, after 1792 the first phase of revolutionary government in France passed well beyond the stage of enlightened reform and culminated in the period of the Terror in 1793–4. The king and large numbers of the aristocracy were executed along with anyone considered to be an enemy of the Revolution, including many who had been its strong and active supporters. Following the Terror a new form of ‘absolutism’ was established as Napoleon Bonaparte crowned himself Emperor. Enlightened reforms were suspended. The course of events in the Revolution, from hopeful reform through the period of the Terror to the establishment of a new form of absolutism under Napoleon also marked the end of the Enlightenment ‘as a force for progress and intellectual change’ (Hamilton, 1992:51). However, although some of its ideas about progress and its faith in reason had been shattered by events, the new ways of thinking about human beings and their societies were not abandoned. Indeed, the emergence of new forms of government, a powerful new class of capitalist entrepreneurs, the arrival of the industrial revolution and the rapid growth of cities and towns, demanded new social theories that could account for and explain the direction in which ‘modern’ societies were heading.

Comte and sociological positivism

August Comte (1798–1857) criticised what he called the ‘negative’ philosophy developed by eighteenth century individualistic philosophers such as Kant. In his view, they had destroyed rather than provided the foundations for social order and social consensus.  Comte was the first person to use the term ‘sociology’. His aim was to create a ‘naturalistic science of society capable of both explaining the past and predicting the future’ (Hamilton, 1992:53). Like Smith and Millar (see Callinicos 1.4 and the discussion above) Comte argues that societies developed in stages. However, Comte argued that development from stage to stage occurred as a result of the development of the human mind. All human thought, he argued, has passed through three separate stages: the theological, the metaphysical and the positive.

According to Comte, in the theological state, the human mind analyses all phenomena as the result of supernatural forces; feelings and imagination predominate. In the metaphysical stage, abstract ideas such as essences or causes predominate. In the positive stage, the human mind gives up the search for absolute truth and the origin of hidden causes. Instead it attempts, through a combination of reason and observation, to discover ‘the actual laws of phenomena…their invariable relations of succession and likeness’ (Comte in Callinicos: 65). The emphasis in this final stage shifts to the study of facts. Comte took the view that every science develops in exactly the same way, passing through the separate stages of the theological, the metaphysical and the positive. In the evolution of science, astronomy develops first, followed by physics, chemistry, biology and sociology. Each science develops only on the basis of its predecessors; there is an hierarchical framework dominated by the law of increasing complexity and decreasing generality.

Sociology is particularly dependent on its immediate predecessor in the hierarchy, biology. The science of biology is basically holistic in character, beginning not from isolated elements, as in chemistry and physics, but from organic wholes and systems. In Comte’s view, sociology should study society as a whole: namely, society defined as a social system. Sociology should investigate the action and reaction of the various parts of the social system. Individual elements must be analysed in their relation to the whole. As with biological organisms, society forms a complex unit irreducible to its component parts: Comte makes the important point that society cannot be simply reduced to the individuals of which it is comprised. Thus, to gain knowledge of the parts, it is essential to examine the whole. Thus Comte is already considerably different to thinkers of the Enlightenment. Society was defined by Comte, therefore, as a collective organism characterised by a harmony between its individual parts and its whole.

Comte’s contribution to sociological theory was to emphasise that all social phenomena are subject to invariable laws and that the task of social science lay in establishing their reality. Does this mean that there is no room in Comte’s positivism for human beings to take action to change their social situation? Is all action determined by invariable laws? It would seem so: the individual might ‘modify’ the course of social development and assert a freedom of action over ‘blind fatality’, but ultimately the natural laws of society dominate. Social evolution, which for Comte was the progressive development of the human mind as it finds its expression in the three stages, is thus a universal history of humanity that claims the importance of knowledge for the ends of social reorganisation, but subordinates the individual to the inevitable ‘realities’ of social life: the needs of order and progress.

Conclusion

As we have seen, Enlightenment thought laid the groundwork for the development of social scientific thought in a number of important ways. By asking questions about how and why societies had come to be as they were and about the social and historical conditions that prevailed, Enlightenment thinkers opened up new and very significant areas of inquiry. However, much Enlightenment thought, despite some advances, was unable to escape from its reliance on an idea of an unchanging ‘human nature’ as the foundation for its theoretical consideration of social conditions. The closest it came to a more proper sociological consideration of the social and economic determinants on human action and organisation was in the Scottish Enlightenment’s notion of stages of human social development. But this was based in the precepts of moral philosophy and was ultimately concerned with the discovery of a universal human nature.

The problem for the new social sciences which began to emerge in the early to mid-nineteenth century was therefore to propose a proper object of study (society itself) and a means of studying this which was not based on ideas about ‘human nature’. As we have seen, various developments within Enlightenment thought pointed in this direction without, however, escaping its inherent methodological individualism.

References:-

Giddens, A. Positivism and Sociology. (Heinemann, 1974).

Hamilton, P. ‘The Enlightenment and the Birth of Social Science’ in Hall, S. and B. Gieben (eds) Formations of Modernity. (Cambridge: Polity, 1992).

Hampson, N. The Enlightenment. (London: Penguin Books, 1990).

Hawthorn, G. Enlightenment and Despair: a History of Social Theory.

(Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1987) .

Israel, J.I. Radical Enlightenment: Philosophy and the Making of Modernity

1650–1750. (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2002).

Kramnick, I. The Portable Enlightenment Reader. (London: Viking Press, 1996).

Morrison, K. Marx, Durkheim and Weber: Formations of Modern Social Thought.

(London: Sage, 2006).

Outram, D. The Enlightenment. (Cambridge: CUP, 2005).

Porter, R. The Enlightenment. (Houndsmills: Palgrave Macmillan, 2001).

Ritzer, G. Sociological Theory. (London: McGraw Hill, 1996).

Rousseau, J-J. Discourse on the Origins of Inequality. (Oxford: Oxford World Classics, 1999).

Swingewood, A. A Short History of Sociological Thought. (Houndmills: Palgrave, 2000)

Debate over Theory in Sociology

What is theory?

Sociology as a discipline emerged out of a series of debates begun during the period of the Enlightenment1 between philosophers, scientists and other intellectuals about the origins and nature of human societies (Skidmore, 1979: 1). The important thing for us to grasp here is that sociological thinking emerged out of a series of debates. Questions began to be asked during the period of the Enlightenment about what societies are and how they function; about the relationship between individuals and societies, and about social change. However, these questions did not immediately lead to a single set of conclusions. Rather, different perspectives and different ideas emerged in response to these questions and these were often vigorously debated between people holding competing views.

This remains the case today and it is important to grasp this point as it allows us to recognise that the systematic attempt to answer complex questions is bound to lead to different solutions, in other words to different theories of what societies are and how they work. Sociological theory is closely related to other forms of social theory. As we will see, sociology as an academic discipline emerged in the later part of the nineteenth century. From the beginning, it attempted to define itself against other forms of explanation, including other types of social theory. However, sociological theory has been and continues to be influenced by the numerous strands of thought in other social and human sciences. It responds, as it always has done, to profound, ongoing transformation in the social, political and economic arrangements of the world.

Theory in the natural sciences

So, what is a ‘theory’? I have already provided something of an answer to this question when it was stated that: the asking of fundamental questions about the nature of the social world led different thinkers to attempt to find systematic answers. From the beginning of the seventeenth century, the discoveries of natural scientists about the properties of the physical and the biological realms had revolutionised the way that people understood the world around them. Like natural scientists, the early social scientists set about developing theories through which they could describe the phenomena they encountered and understand the processes that gave rise to these phenomena. The natural sciences were held in such high regard during the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries that it was thought that they could provide explicit methodological models for the social sciences. The adoption of a ‘scientific’ approach implied that society was something that was in effect unknowable in ordinary or ‘commonsense’ terms and that specialist methods were required in order to understand what it was and how it worked. The development of theoretical models of what societies are and how they function is central to the production of sociological as opposed to commonsense understandings of the social world.

Now, by ‘theory’ the (natural and social) scientist does not mean (as in everyday usage) vague guesses or imprecise conjectures (as in ‘well, my theory would be…’). For scientists, a theory usually emerges out of a long period of careful observation of phenomena and represents a serious attempt at a systematic and logically consistent framework of explanation based on the accumulation of empirical evidence. A theory, or a theoretical model, is a series of propositions about the possible nature of an object or phenomenon. We use the word possible because a theory is not a final statement of truth but a series of plausible conjectures, based on available evidence, which appears to most accurately describe that phenomenon, account for how it functions and how it relates to other phenomena. Theory is important because it makes generalisations about observations and consists of an interrelated, coherent set of ideas and models. Typically, theories are both descriptive and explanatory. That is, a theory should have the capacity to describe a set of observed phenomena and to explain their occurrence, usually causally. In our usual understanding of science, a theory continues to be worked on and tested and is thus always open-ended and provisional rather than dogmatically held to represent the ‘truth’. So theory for the scientist is always work in progress and the scientist may well end up having to revise their ideas if sufficient evidence emerges that contradicts an existing theory.

Theory and ‘commonsense’

There is another important point here too. The ‘Ptolemaic’ or ‘geocentric’ theory of the cosmos and the place of the earth in it appeared to correspond to the immediate evidence of the senses. It was only when a different kind of evidence was presented (careful observation of planetary motion using a telescope) that what had previously appeared as a commonsense ‘truth’ was shown to be false. For the sociologist, commonsense understanding is typically problematic. As members of the social world we all have an immediate, everyday and commonsense understanding of, for example, the family and our place within it, or of our experience of the education system, or of the culture of our respective societies and so forth. However, such commonsense understanding is not a sociological theory of the society that we live in. Instead, sociological theory, like theory in the natural sciences, proposes a much broader framework that attempts to both describe and explain specific phenomena (such as ‘the family’).

Sociological theory emerged out of questions and debates about the nature of human societies that began to be asked seriously from the eighteenth century onwards. One of the important outcomes of this was the development of sociology as an academic discipline. In the first instance, this meant that approaches to the serious study of society were influenced by and largely derived from the methodologies of the natural sciences.

Out of this process, many different sociological traditions emerged and developed. They offered often radically different approaches, ideas and conclusions. However, one thing that most of them had in common was the commitment to the development of explanatory frameworks within which specific social phenomena (for example, social class, suicide and so forth) could be understood as part of much larger social, cultural or economic processes. It is through the development of such frameworks that sociologists are able to account for the phenomena that they study.

It is also through these frameworks that sociologists can challenge the commonsense and often very limited accounts of the social world that most of us have. Thus, when we read sociological theory we can expect to find aspects of the social world with which we thought we were familiar placed in different and sometimes surprising contexts, often giving us radically different and new perspectives on them.

What is sociological theory?

Sociological theory emerges out of attempts to provide explanatory frameworks that link specific aspects of the social world to larger processes, thus helping us to contextualise them and to understand them. William Skidmore (1979: 4) suggests that most sociological theories are developed out of a desire to find solutions to ‘theoretical problems’. For Skidmore, ‘theoretical problems’ are questions about how we might understand problematic aspects of the social world. For example, how do we explain social disintegration or the maintenance of social stability, the persistence of poverty, the rise and fall of the suicide rate or the birth rate, for example? Skidmore argues that the ‘solutions’ to these problems usually involve the creation of ‘additional related concepts’ through which the first problem can be understood.

Let us take as an example Durkheim’s solution to the ‘problem’ of the fluctuation of the suicide rate. Durkheim found that in Europe the suicide rate in predominantly Protestant areas was significantly higher than that in Catholic ones. Durkheim’s solution to this ‘problem’ was to generate additional concepts (such as ‘anomie’, or the feeling of being without a social ‘role’). These new concepts were related by Durkheim to the key notion of social solidarity and its relationship to human well-being. So while Durkheim’s interest in suicide began as a theoretical problem centred on a question (‘how do we account for the relatively higher rates of suicide in the suicide rate?’), its solution involved the construction of a theory of society that stressed the importance of solidarity and integration. When various factors cause solidarity and meaningful integration to break down, increased rates of suicide follow as a consequence. Durkheim’s theory also states that it is these social rather than more individual psychological factors that determine changes in the suicide rate. As we can see, the original question is answered when Durkheim relates the phenomenon of suicide to a number of causal factors which, when taken together, provide an overall theory of the way that society works and which stresses the danger posed by possible forms of social breakdown.

The theory is also directly ‘counter-intuitive’ in that it turns on its head our commonsense understanding of suicide (we tend to think of it as a purely personal, individual act).

Theory and ‘proof’: testing a hypothesis

Another key point to note here is how Durkheim’s general theory of the primacy of society over the individual generates a concrete hypothesis  in relation to the problem of suicide. A hypothesis is a testable statement,which sometimes takes the form of a prediction, about a relationship between two or more ideas or classes of phenomena. In Durkheim’s case, we can see that the purpose of his study of suicide is to demonstrate a relationship between social solidarity and individual behaviour. We have already seen how in the natural sciences, theory is often (although not always) developed through empirical observation and study, experimentation and so on through a process of generalisation from particular examples. This process is known as induction. When we come to think about hypotheses we can see this process in reverse; this is called deduction. Here, reasoning is from the general to the particular. That is, from a general statement or rule we move to down to a specific example. The specific example is then demonstrated to be an example of the workings of the general rule. The two are thus directly related to one another.For example, Durkheim’s general theory, developed over a number of studies, maintains that the individual is entirely dependent on society for all aspects of life. The collective entity that we refer to as ‘society’ gives us our identity and a sense of belonging. If the social bonds are sufficiently robust, social solidarity will be relatively highly developed and the individual will be integrated into the social order. In order for Durkheim to demonstrate this general theoretical proposition, he needed to prove a definite relationship between social solidarity and individual behaviour.

In order to do this, Durkheim needed ‘concrete indications’ of both social solidarity and individual behaviour. Durkheim had collected statistical data about an apparently supremely individual act (suicide). He also noted that stronger forms of social solidarity were provided by the Catholic faith and weaker ones by the Protestant, which is a much more individualistic religious tradition.

Durkheim’s hypothesis therefore was ‘that in areas of Europe where Catholicism was strong, suicide rates would be lower than in areas where Protestantism was predominant’ (Skidmore: 8). Durkheim expected a relationship to exist between suicide rates and religious affiliation precisely because he had derived his hypothesis from a general theoretical understanding of the relationship between social solidarity and individuality. As Skidmore argues, ‘[t]he fact that Durkheim’s concrete prediction (his hypothesis) was by and large confirmed suggested that the theoretical scheme from which it derived also was valid.’ The apparent fact that suicide rates are higher in Protestant countries appeared3 to provide empirical evidence proving the validity of the general theory. In this case, therefore, we can see that a very important aspect of theoretical work is that it makes general propositions about the nature of the social world that we inhabit and it also attempts to validate these propositions through use of specific, empirically verifiable examples. The testing of hypotheses is one part of this process.

Explaining the bigger picture

We have seen how theories tend to make strong general propositions. We have also seen how theorists develop hypotheses that test the validity of these propositions by attempting to demonstrate significant (possibly causal) relationships between particular aspects of the social world. Many sociological theories are however highly complex in character and they suggest that in order for us to understand a specific phenomenon, a complex set of related concepts are required. Skidmore (1979:3) argues that one of the characteristics of sociological theories is that they ‘generate additional ideas in the course of solving a theoretical problem.’ These ideas might involve creating new concepts. As we have seen in looking at the example of Durkheim, a theoretical problem or question is usually only answered once it can be located in a coherent (theoretical) framework within which it can be explained as part of a larger process. Skidmore uses the example of social class to demonstrate how this works. According to Skidmore, social class is a ‘single concept’ and while it might be ‘felt or experienced’ at an individual level it cannot be explained or understood without additional concepts and ideas.

Skidmore states that Only when the concept of social class is put together with additional ideas does it begin to be explained and accounted for. Understanding social class has altogether to do with the meaning of social structure, social relations, power, privilege, obligation, authority, and many other ideas. In practical terms, this suggests that to understand social class, one is obliged to develop clear ideas of these related factors.The important point that Skidmore makes here is that of the relationship between a single concept and additional ideas. In order for the concept of social class to be made meaningful it has to be related to other ideas that can explain it and its importance.

Conclusion

This introduction has shown you how sociological theory is a central element of the work of sociology as an academic discipline. We looked at the critical differences between sociological theory and one’s commonsense views, opinions and prejudices. In other words, we made a distinction between the formal nature of sociological theorising and its claims to objectivity and one’s subjective view of the world. We also saw how sociological theory emerges from a system of thinking that links concepts, often new concepts, with evidence or data to create a broader understanding and explanation of the social world. We saw how concept formation is essential to sociological theorising.

References:-

Callinicos, A. Social Theory: A Historical Introduction. (Cambridge: Polity Press,2007) 

Calhoun, C. et al. (eds) Classical Sociological Theory. (Oxford: Blackwell, 2007)

Calhoun, C. et al. (eds) Contemporary Sociological Theory. (Oxford: Blackwell,2007) 

Dodd, N. Social Theory and Modernity. (Cambridge: Polity Press, 1999)

Morrison, K. Marx, Durkheim, Weber: Formations of Modern Social Thought.(London: Sage, 2006) second revised edition. 

Scott, J. Social Theory: Central Issues in Sociology. (London: Sage, 2006)

Skidmore, W. Theoretical Thinking in Sociology. (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1979).

Swingewood, A. A Short History of Sociological Thought. (Houndsmills: Palgrave, 2000) 

Abercrombie, W., S. Hill and B.Turner The Penguin Dictionary of Sociology. (London: Longman, 2006) fifth edition.

Dodd, N. Social Theory and Modernity. (Cambridge: Polity Press, 1999)

Giddens, A. Capitalism and Modern Social Theory. (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1996) second edition .

Morrison, K. Marx, Durkheim and Weber: Formations of Modern Social Thought. (London: Sage, 2006) second edition .

Ritzer, G. Sociological Theory.* (London: McGraw Hill, 2007) sixth edition

Scott, J. Social Theory: Central Issues in Sociology. (London: Sage, 2006)

Scott, J. and G. Marshall A Dictionary of Sociology. (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2005) 

सब कहे बड़े अच्छे दिन हैं

बहुत नहीं सिर्फ़ चार कौए थे काले ,
उन्होंने यह तय किया कि सारे उडने वाले
उनके ढंग से उडे,रुकें , खायें और गायें
वे जिसको त्यौहार कहें सब उसे मनाएं
उडने तक के नियम बदल कर ऐसे ढाले
उडने वाले सिर्फ़ रह गए बैठे ठाले
आगे क्या कुछ हुआ सुनाना बहुत कठिन है
यह दिन कवि का नहीं , चार कौओं का दिन है
सब कहे बड़े अच्छे दिन हैं !
-- भवानीप्रसाद मिश्र

Contemporary Thoughts in wonderland

"In the life, there comes a moment, whoever tapped it makes him uncommon." Sadhanatai Amte

‘भान ठेवून योजना आखा आण बेभान होऊन राबा" Baba Amte

Life is a challenge, meet it! Life is a dream, realize it! Life is a game, play it! Life is Love, enjoy it!”

When mountain hamper the path, cowards think it is an obstacle on their way while the braves think it is a reason to move forward.

INDia vision2o2o

Our vision of India’s future should be both comprehensive and harmonious. It must encompass all the myriad aspects that constitute the life of the country and its people. It must balance and synthesise all the divergent views and forces that compete in the pursuit of self-fulfilment. It must be based on an objective assessment of facts and a realistic appraisal of possibilities, yet it must rise beyond the limitations of past trends, immediate preoccupations and pressing challenges to perceive the emerging opportunities and concealed potentials. Most of all, our vision of India’s future should serve to awaken in all of us a greater awareness of our cultural and spiritual strengths - which formed the bedrock of our past achievements and should form the foundation of our future accomplishments. Some of our traditions must change, but knowledge, in essence, is our greatest endowment. The vision should awaken in us an unswerving confidence in ourselves, a complete reliance on our own capacity as a nation and an unshakeable determination to realise our full potential. A true vision cannot be a static written statement. It must emerge as a living and dynamic reality in the minds and hearts of the people and their leaders.




This vision statement of India 2020 may not fulfill all these criteria to our full satisfaction, but it can serve as a useful starting point and foundation for contemplating future possibilities and our destiny as a nation. It can serve to indicate the broad lines of policy and strategy by which India can emerge as a far stronger, more prosperous and more equitable nation in the coming years. This document draws upon many ideas and proposals contained in more than thirty background papers presented to the Committee over the last two years, which have been presented in the main body.



The vast scope and complexity of the issues prevent us from doing full justice to them in this summary1 . This vision statement is neither a prediction of what will actually occur, nor simply a wish list of desirable but unattainable ends. Rather, it is a statement of what we believe is possible for our nation to achieve, provided we are able to fully mobilise all the available resources – human, organisational, technological and financial – generate the requisite will and make the required effort. In formulating our vision of the future India, it is important to see beyond the limits of the immediate past to rediscover the greatness that is India. Although the present Republic of India is a young developing nation, our people have a rich and illustrious history as one of the longest living civilisations in the world. In 1835, even Lord Macaulay, (the British historian and politician). had to admit before the British Parliament: “I have travelled across the length and breadth of India and I have not seen one person who is a beggar, who is a thief. Such wealth I have seen in this country, such high moral values, people of such caliber… the very backbone of this nation, which is her spiritual and cultural heritage…..” Thus, it would be wrong to state that in 1947 India started to construct a modern nation from scratch. Rather, it began the process of rediscovering its rich cultural and spiritual values that had formed the foundation of India in the past. It is on this foundation that we seek to formulate our vision of India 2020.



An essential requirement for envisioning India’s future in the new century is to recognise

that the parameters which determine national development have changed in recent years and will change further in future. This will open up greater possibilities than ever before. A powerful set of catalytic forces is accelerating the speed of social change throughout the world. They include a rapid rise in levels of education, high rates of technological innovation and application, ever faster and cheaper communication that dissolves physical and social barriers both within countries and internationally, greater availability and easier access to information, and the further opening up of global markets. These trends are representative of a relative shift in the engines that drive development from manufacturing to the services sector and from capital resources to human and knowledge resources. Technology, organisation, information, education and productive skills will, therefore, play a critically decisive role in governing the future course of development.



The growing influence of these factors, acting on the foundation of India’s increasingly

dynamic and vibrant economic base, lend credence to the view that India can achieve and sustain higher than historical rates of economic growth in the coming decades. The compounded effect of achieving the targeted annual GDP growth rate of 8.5 to 9 per cent over the next 20 years would result in a quadrupling of the real per capita income and almost eliminating the percentage of Indians living below the poverty line. This will raise India's rank from around 11th today to 4th from the top in 2020 among 207 countries given in the World Development Report in terms of GDP. Further, in terms of per capita GDP measured in ppp India's rank will rise by a minimum of 53 ranks from the present 153 to 100. This will mean, India will move from a low income country to an upper middle income country. This is a very real possibility for us to seize upon and realise.



What will India be like 20 years from now? While in some areas we can confidently estimate quantitatively the outcome with a fair degree of accuracy, in some others we only know the broad direction. In still others we are unable to say with confidence the direction that future trends will take. We can only indicate what would be most desirable and signal the opportunities and obstacles that will arise along the way.



By 2020, the people of India will be more numerous, better educated, healthier and

more prosperous than at any time in our long history.



In spite of the declining fertility rates, falling infant mortality and increasing life expectancy will spur an increase of at least 300 million people. The result: Total population of India will exceed 1.3 billion in 2020. A marked slowdown in birth rates will leave the under-15 population at roughly the same size as it is today (i.e., increase by 0.2 per cent per annum). This means that the pressure for expansion of the educational system will come only from increasing enrolment and efforts to reduce drop-out rates. The population over 60 years of age will double from 60 to 120 million people (i.e., around 3.5 per cent per annum). This will necessitate the adoption of special measures to support this vulnerable group, which will include a high percentage of illiterates and who are especially susceptible to both malnutrition and health-related problems. Unequal rates of population and economic growth are likely to further aggravate regional disparities within the country.



Well before 2020, India will have the capacity to produce more than sufficient quantities of food to provide a healthy diet to its entire population and become a major food exporter. Even by maintaining the moderate rates of productivity growth achieved during the 1990s, the country will be able to meet the projected demand in all major food categories and generate a substantial surplus of food grains and dairy products. Rising productivity and rapid diversification into value-added crops could spur another Green Revolution in Indian agriculture.



Production of surplus food will not, however, ensure the eradication of under-nutrition. In

spite of enormous progress in the food production, nearly half the country’s population still suffers from chronic under-nutrition and malnutrition. The most vulnerable are children, women and the elderly among the lower income groups. Eradication of this scourge will require the generation of sufficient employment opportunities so that all households have the purchasing power needed for assured economic access to food. Employment or livelihood security is an essential and inseparable element of a comprehensive strategy for national food security. Conversely, food security is an essential requirement for raising the productivity of India’s workforce to international levels.



As population growth slows to replacement levels over the next two decades, India’s greatest challenge will be to provide employment opportunities for all job-seekers. The working age population will expand by about 45 per cent, spurring rapid growth of the labour force and the number of job-seekers. Major changes in economic policy and strategy will be needed to eliminate the current backlog of more than 34 million unemployed job-seekers and assure employment opportunities for all additions to the labour force. India needs to generate around 200 million additional employment opportunities over the next 20 years. At the same time, the total proportion of the workforce involved in agriculture is likely to decline from 56 per cent to 40 per cent or even lower, thus increasing the pressure for rapid multiplication of non-farm employment opportunities.



Access to gainful employment is an essential condition for citizens to exercise their economic rights in a market democracy. The capacity to pay is the economic equivalent of the right to vote.



India’s vision for 2020 must be founded on the premise of Jobs for All. Employment must be considered a constitutional right of every citizen, backed by the full commitment of the Government. Granted that the requisite political will is forthcoming, the goal of full employment is certainly achievable. This will require a reorientation of national priorities, technology policy and government action. Formerly separate lines of sectoral planning need to be integrated around a central vision and set of goals, of which full employment must be one.



How and in which fields will these additional job opportunities be created? There are

abundant opportunities and ample means available to the nation to achieve the objective of creating additional employment opportunities. The public organised sector however cannot be the target area, since it will continue to shed jobs for quite some time. Although the growth of the private organised sector will contribute significantly to the growth of the economy, its contribution to employment generation will be quite modest, since total employment in this sector at present represents only 2.5 per cent of all jobs. The largest number of new jobs will be created by small and medium enterprises (SMEs), which contribute the vast majority of private sector jobs in more advanced economies such as the USA, Japan and Korea. International experience confirms that SMEs are better insulated from the external shocks, more resistant to the stresses, and more responsive to the demands of the fast-changing technology adoption, globalisation and entrepreneurial development. Employment has nearly tripled in India’s small and medium sector over the past 20 years. A repetition of this performance would generate an additional 150-200 million jobs by 2020.



A comprehensive package of venture capital, credit, liberalisation of controls, technology, training, marketing and management measures is needed to ensure continuous expansion of this sector. The vision document identifies a number of high employment potential sectors, including commercial agriculture, agro-industry and agri-business; forestation for pulp, fuel and power; retail and wholesale trade; tourism, housing and construction; IT and IT-enabled services; transport and communications; education, health and financial services. While all these sectors are already expanding, a wide range of strategies and policies are available to stimulate more rapid development.

Induction of advanced crop technology will reduce production costs and expand the market for important commercial crops. Linkages to down-stream agro-industries can dramatically reduce waste and spoilage of perishable commodities, while broadening the range of marketable products.



Adoption of an agriculture-based energy policy focusing on production of fuel oil and biomass power could generate millions of additional on-farm jobs and lucrative alternative markets for farm produce, while reducing the country’s dependence on imported fuels. Tourism-related occupations presently employ only 5.6 per cent of the Indian workforce, compared to 10.8 per cent globally. Development of India’s tourism infrastructure, combined with modifications in air transport, hotel rates and tax policies could generate an additional 25 million employment opportunities in this sector. Outsourcing of services by OECD countries will fuel a rapid expansion of IT and ITenabled services, generating millions of jobs within the country. The country will also require millions of additional teachers and medical professionals to meet the surging demand for education and health services.



While it is difficult to project unemployment rates 20 years into the future, rising levels of education and growth of the over-60 age group will mitigate, to some extent, the growth of the labour force. Combined with the enormous opportunities for creation of new employment opportunities, the incidence of unemployment could be almost eliminated by 2020 .



Successful education policy forms the bedrock of all fields of national development—

political, economic, technical, scientific, social and environmental. Education is the foundation for a vibrant democracy, growth of productivity and income and employment opportunities. Literacy must be considered the minimum right and requirement of every Indian citizen. Presently, the country has about 300 million illiterate adults. The Government’s goal is to achieve 75 per cent literacy within the next five years. A 100 per cent literate India is of paramount importance for realising the greater vision presented in this document.



Literacy is an indispensable minimum condition for development, but it is far from sufficient. In this increasingly complex and technologically sophisticated world, 10 years of school education must also be considered an essential prerequisite for citizens to adapt and succeed economically, avail of social opportunities and develop their individual potentials. The current enrolment rate for primary education is around 77 per cent and for secondary education about 60 per cent. Achieving 100 per cent enrolment of all children in the 6 to 14 year age group is an ambitious but achievable goal for 2020 that should be pursued as a top priority.



Increasing enrolment to cover the entire school-age population needs to be combined with efforts to increase the quality and relevance of school curriculum to equip students with not only academic knowledge, but also values and life-knowledge. A qualitative shift is needed from routine memorisation to development of children’s capacity for critical thinking and from methods that emphasise teaching and passive learning to those

that foster active interest and the ability of children to learn on their own.



Concentrated efforts are needed to tap the potentials of alternative methods of knowledge

delivery for both school going and non-school going children and adults, including television, computerised self-learning and Internet-based courses. Given the huge number of young students that will quest for all levels of higher education and a severe shortage of qualified instructors, and given India’s outstanding expertise in the IT industry, the country should embark on a massive programme to convert progressively the higher educational curriculum into a multi-media, webbased format and to establish accredited standards for recognition of courses taught under distance education programmes.

Our vision of India in 2020 is predicated on the belief that human resources are the most

important determinant of overall development. A more than doubling of investment in education from the current level of 3.2 - 4.4 per cent of GNP is the soundest policy for quadrupling the country’s GNP per capita.



The knowledge and skill of our workforce will be a major determinant of India’s future rate of economic growth as well as the type and number of jobs we create. Currently, only five per cent of the country’s labour force in the 20-24 age category have undergone formal vocational training, compared to levels ranging from 28 per cent in Mexico to 96 per cent in Korea. A comprehensive strategy is needed to enhance the nation’s employable skills, including a cataloging of the entire range of vocational skills required to support development, expansion of the nation’s system of vocational training institutes, widening of the range of vocational skills taught, and active involvement of the private sector in skill delivery.



A national network of 50,000 or more computerized vocational centres run by private self-employed businesses, similar to the STD booths and Internet cafes, can deliver low-cost, high-quality training to 10 million workers every year—more than five times the total number covered by existing programmes. A parallel effort is required to upgrade the skills of Indian farmers, who represent 56 per cent of the total workforce. The existing system of 300 Krishi Vignan Kendras needs to be expanded and supplemented by a national network consisting of thousands of farm schools offering practical demonstration and training on lands leased from farmers in the local community.



The health of a nation is a product of many factors and forces that combine and interact.

Economic growth, per capita income, employment, literacy, education, age at marriage, birth rates, availability of information regarding health care and nutrition, access to safe drinking water, public and private health care infrastructure, access to preventive health and medical care, and health insurance are among the contributing factors. Measured in terms of infant mortality rates, maternal mortality, life expectancy and nutrition, the health of the Indian population has improved dramatically over the past 50 years. Yet, despite these achievements, wide disparities exist between different income groups, between rural and urban communities, between different states and even districts within states, and a big gap from the level attained by the high middle income and advanced developed country.



Communicable diseases remain the major cause of illness. During the next 5 to 10 years,

existing programmes are likely to eliminate polio and leprosy and substantially reduce the prevalence of kalaazar and filariasis. However, TB, malaria and AIDS will remain major public health problems.



Improved diagnostic services and treatment can reduce the prevalence and incidence of TB by 2020. Restructuring the workforce and strengthening health care infrastructure can reduce the incidence of malaria by 50 per cent or more within a decade. Childhood diarrhea, another major cause of illness, can be largely prevented through community action and public education. Childhood under-nutrition can be addressed by targeting children of low birth weight and utilising low-cost screening procedures. Given the projected improvement in living standards, food security, educational levels and access to health care among all levels of the population, dramatic progress can be achieved in reducing the prevalence of severe under-nutrition in children substantially by 2020. Although private expenditure on health care is expected to rise sharply, the level of public expenditure needs to rise about four-fold from present levels in order to support a more equitable and effective health care system, providing universal access, fair distribution of financial costs, and special attention to vulnerable groups such as women, children, the aged and disabled. Health insurance can also play an invaluable role in improving the health care system.



Literacy and general education form the base of the knowledge pyramid which is essential for a rapid and sustained development of the society in the 21st Century. The continuous advancement of science and the application of improved technology constitute the middle rung, Social ideals and values form the apex. Technical education, both vocational and professional, provide the foundation for development of science and technology. A large number of the country’s engineering colleges need to be upgraded to quality standards nearer to those of India’s world-class IITs. India’s expenditure on R&D, which is currently 1/60th that of Korea, needs to be considerably enhanced. Another essential requirement is to improve the linkage between technology development and technology application by fostering close ties between basic research and business.



India’s urban population is expected to rise from 28 per cent to 40 per cent of the total

population by 2020, placing increasing strain on the country’s urban infrastructure. Future growth is likely to concentrate in and around 60 to 70 large cities having a population of one million or more. Decentralisation of municipal governance and greater reliance on institutional financing and capital markets for resource mobilisation are likely to increase the disparity between the larger and smaller urban centres. A satisfying outcome will depend on the formulation of effective public policies to accelerate all-round development of smaller urban centres and to refashion the role of the state as an effective facilitator to compensate for the deficiencies of market mechanisms in the delivery of public goods.



Simultaneous efforts are needed to strengthen the rural infrastructure relating to education, health care, transport, telecom, power and water. Unless bold steps are taken to promote a geographically more dispersed and equitable development paradigm, widening disparities between rural and urban centres will accelerate the migration to cities and the rapid expansion of urban slum areas. One promising alternative approach is to link clusters of villages together by high speed circular highways, thereby bringing 100,000 or more people into a circular community that can be crossed within 30 minutes of travel time, and promoting a balanced and distributed development of urban services along the periphery of the ring road.



Rapid flow of information is a catalyst for social development. Vision 2020 conceives of

India evolving into an information society and knowledge economy built on the edifice of information and communication technology (ICT), of which telecommunications is the springboard. Rapid expansion and extension of the country’s fixed and mobile telecom infrastructure is essential for stimulating growth of both the ICT sector and the economy as a whole. The number of fixed telephone line services will multiply another seven-fold in the next 18 years. As the fixed line market matures, more and more users will cross over to mobile communications as well, spurring a mobile revolution in India. Mobile telecommunications and the Internet will set the contours of technological progress over the next two decades. The third generation mobile devices with access to mobile data and voice should be within reach of wide sections of the population by 2020.



Development involves a continuous increase in the number of physical transactions and the speed with which they occur, both of which are highly dependent on the size and quality of the nation’s transport system. Efforts to achieve higher GDP growth rates in future years cannot be sustained without correspondingly greater efforts to strengthen the nation’s transport system. Based on the projected GDP growth of 8 per cent per annum, the total freight traffic is likely to reach five times the level in 2000. Passenger traffic is expected to increase more than four-fold over the next 20 years.

Increasing population combined with continued urbanisation will fuel the explosive growth of personal vehicle movement in cities, which can only be curtailed by massive investment in mass transport services. Specific plans need to be formulated by each urban authority, starting with the provision of bus services, developing intermediate public transport and identifying corridors for future growth, including reserving land for such activity. In the long run, rail-based mass transport systems appear to be the only viable solution to the problems of urban transport in India’s major metropolitan areas.



A key component of rural development is the provision of roads for connectivity, access

being essential for social and economic well-being. Families residing alongside roads benefit from better health and greater educational opportunities compared to the families living in remote villages. Based on current plans, all villages with more than 500 inhabitants will be connected by all-weather roads within the next decade.



Our vision of India 2020 is of a country having a well-developed network of roads and

railways, with adequate capacity to handle the growth in transport demand. The volume of road traffic will multiply about five-fold, carried on a 70,000 km network of national highways. State highways with at least two way lanes will link most districts. Rural roads will provide access to the furthest outlying villages. Technological progress is working towards generation of vehicles that are pollution free and fuel efficient. An efficient public transport system will lead to a reduction in the population of two-wheelers in major urban areas. We also envisage that connection of several major rivers through a network of interlinking canals will provide impetus to rapid growth of lowcost, inland water transport.



Total investment requirements to meet these needs will increase to levels three to four

times higher than present levels in real terms. While the government will continue to be a major source of funds for infrastructure, internal generation of resources by the transport services will have to increase, supported by more realistic pricing of transport services, reduction in operating costs, and active involvement of the private sector in the development and operation of transport systems.



Economic growth is driven by energy that powers the nation’s industries, vehicles, homes

and offices. For future growth to be both rapid and sustainable, the energy source needs to be as resource-efficient and environmentally benign as possible. Total demand for power is expected to increase by another 3.5 times or more in the next two decades, which will necessitate a tripling of installed generation capacity from 101,000 to 292,000 MW by 2020. ‘Business as usual’ will result in a spiralling cost for imported fuels and a surge in emission of environmental pollutants.



The overall growth in demand for all forms of fuel will mirror the growth in the power sector. Total coal demand will nearly double, and both oil and gas demand will triple. Expanding domestic production capacity will require substantial investments, while increasing dependence on imported forms of energy will increase vulnerability to fluctuations in global energy prices. Surging demand will also place increased burden on the physical and social environment.

Enhanced adoption by the public and private sector, of best-practices and environment-friendly technologies, more efficient use of energy, promoting private sector investment, and greater efforts to protect the environment will be required to cope effectively with the nation’s growing energy appetite.



Greater reliance on renewable energy sources offers enormous economic, social and

environmental benefits. India is already the world’s fifth largest producer of wind power, with more than 95 per cent of the investment coming from the private sector. Other renewable energy technologies, including solar photovoltaic, solar thermal, small hydro, biomass power and biofuels are also spreading. A concerted effort to implement a more visionary approach to alternative energy generation could significantly reduce India’s dependence on imported fuels while also reducing the strain on the environment. Biomass power production, ethanol motor fuel and jatropa fuel oil can generate millions of rural employment opportunities and contribute to higher rural incomes, at the same time reducing the outflow of foreign exchange. Tapping this potential will require conducive national policies and programmes designed to attract strong participation from the private sector.



India possesses 16 per cent of the world’s population but just 4 per cent of its water resources. At the national level, current water resources are more than sufficient to meet the demand, but future projections show that the supply situation could become difficult over the next half century.



Total water consumption is expected to rise by 20-40 per cent over the next 20 years. India is not poor in water resources. What it lacks is the ability to efficiently capture and effectively utilise the available resources for maximum benefit. The government policy needs to be revised to provide incentives for efficient use of water, including appropriate water pricing and more effective institutional mechanisms for water management. Enormous potential exists for increasing the productivity of water in agriculture by methods to raise crop productivity combined with better water management. Both urban and rural water resources can be substantially enhanced by widespread adoption of rain-water harvesting techniques, designed to capture run-off water during the monsoon season and channel it to recharge both surface water and underground aquifers. These methods need to be applied throughout the country on a massive scale, both in rural and urban areas.



Proposals to link some of the major rivers together could channel surpluses from floodprone areas into drought-prone regions, create millions of hectares of additional irrigated land, provide an inexpensive system of inland water transport, and generate millions of additional employment opportunities in construction, agriculture, trade and industrial development. Despite the high cost of such a system, the potential benefits to the nation are so vast that pragmatic proposals demand serious consideration. Given the vision and political will, India can convert the present water problem into a huge opportunity.



India’s wide range of agro-climatic regions, vast extent of land and forest, and rich variety of biodiversity rank it among the most naturally endowed nations of the world, but its huge and still expanding human and animal populations and its urge for industrialisation tax these resources to the limit. The potential however exists for dramatically reversing the pattern of degradation that has taken place in recent decades by a systematic effort to halt soil erosion, restore precious nutrients and organic material to crop lands, recharge groundwater tables, and re-establish depleted forest lands. A combination of measures would make it possible to increase the land under forest and tree cover from the current level of 71 million hectares to 83 million hectares.

India’s progress over the next 20 years will be intimately linked to events within the region and around the world. The World Bank estimates that India will become the fourth largest economy in the world by 2020. Liberalisation of trade will open up new opportunities for export of goods,



while increasing pressures on domestic industry to cope with competition from imports. The global market for textiles, clothing and agricultural products will expand dramatically, but India’s ability to export will depend on its capacity to keep pace with rising international standards of price, quality, productivity, and service.

The emerging global scenario will open up greater opportunities for countries with a surplus of well-educated, highly skilled labour that can provide an attractive commercial environment for the outsourcing of manufacturing and service businesses from high and even middle income countries. Export of services is a field in which India can excel. India’s recent boom in outsourcing of IT services is only the tip of a rich vein of economic opportunity that could extend to a wide range of manufacturing and service businesses.



Computerisation, coupled with low cost global telecommunications are generating rapid

growth of trade in service businesses, such as software and IT enabled services. This trend will accelerate, opening up vast opportunities for countries with the capacity to deliver low-cost, high-quality service. At the same time, the pressure for export of the highly educated and highly skilled individuals will also increase, so that a significant migration of scientific, engineering and medical talent is likely to continue.



Growth in the size of the international capital market will open up increasing opportunities for India to attract foreign direct and institutional investment, but a substantial improvement in infrastructure and elimination of most of the bureaucratic barriers will help India in attracting a greater share of FDI flows. Mobilisation of India’s expatriate population could have momentous impact on the inflow of FDI in 2020.

India’s technology policy needs to be reformulated in the light of the emerging international economic environment to capitalise on the accelerated global development and diffusion of technologies and keep pace with more demanding international standards for cost, quality and productivity. We will need to be far more aggressive in acquiring and applying advanced technologies in a wide range of fields, including agriculture, information technology, energy, health and education.

At the same time, we can also aspire to become an important contributor to the expansion of global frontiers of technology by building upon and leveraging our already significant achievements in fields such as pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, software, space and energy.



India is in the midst of transforming an agrarian economy into a modern multi-dimensional economic enterprise and a traditional stratified society into an egalitarian society, while simultaneously fashioning and transforming itself into a modern democracy through consultative politics. It is inevitable that such a rapid social, economic, technological and political development of one billion people should generate turbulence. Yet it is essential that this turbulence be managed and confined within limits that preserve the social fabric and permit the nation’s transformation to continue.

Underlying all our plans and hopes for a better future, underpinning all our efforts to evolve into a prosperous democratic nation is the shared aspiration of all Indian people for peace. Peace is not merely the absence or avoidance of conflict. It is the essential prerequisite for all human and social development, for which we can strive to increase our knowledge, develop our productive skills, strengthen our physical infrastructure, and integrate our multitudinous communities into a strong, united nation.



The challenges to peace are numerous and they come from all directions—from outside our borders and within, as well as from within our minds. Our capacity to preserve and build a lasting peace for all Indians will depend on the strength of our military to defend our borders, the strength of our economy to generate increasing employment and income opportunities for our citizens, the strength of our educational system to cultivate the knowledge and skills of our youth, the strength of our legal and judicial system to safeguard the rights of individuals and communities, the strength of our scientists and engineers to both develop and harness technologies for the benefit of the people, as well as the wisdom and determination of our political leaders to remove injustices and to direct the collective energies of the nation for greater achievement in every field of endeavour.



Development tends to reduce the extent of these disparities in some ways while aggravating them in others. Economic disparities aggravate perceptions of difference between sub-national, linguistic and communal groups, fostering ethnicity and communalism. A positive strategy for national security will depend on the secular and democratic values of the Indian nation deriving its strength from our culture, civilisation and freedom.



External security depends on national power. It requires a continuous enhancement of the

country’s capacity to use its tangible and intangible resources in such a manner as to affect the behaviour of other nations. While power is often conceived in narrow terms as military power, in the world that is emerging it must be much more broadly conceived to include political, economic, technological, social and intellectual dimensions. A vibrant economy and a leading role in international affairs may be as important as a strong military to the preservation and development of national power. Internationally, we must gravitate from a state-centered, egocentric and competitive security paradigm to a co-operative security paradigm that enhances the security of each nation by reducing potential threats to all nations. Human development in all its dimensions is and will remain our highest strategic priority.



India’s economic and technological transition will be accompanied by a multifaceted political transformation that will have profound impact on the functioning of government. This transformation will foster decentralisation and devolution of power to local bodies, including financial devolution and financial responsibility; increasing direct participation of people in setting grass root priorities for distribution of resources, and building and managing local projects; and greater efficiency, transparency, and accountability in government agencies at all levels. E-governance has the potential, if fully harnessed and rightly utilised, to radically improve the speed, convenience, quality and transparency of public administrative services, while enhancing the ability of individual citizens to express and exercise their democratic rights.



Our vision of India in 2020 is of a nation bustling with energy, entrepreneurship and

innovation. The country’s people will be better fed, dressed and housed, taller and healthier, more educated and longer living than any generation in the country’s long history. India will be much more integrated with the global economy and will be a major player in terms of trade, technology and investment. Rising levels of education, employment and incomes will help stabilise India’s internal security and social environment. A united and prosperous India will be far less vulnerable to external security threats. A more prosperous India in 2020 will be characterised by a bettereducated electorate and more transparent, accountable, efficient and decentralised government.



Realisation of this vision will depend on many things, but most importantly on our selfconfidence, self-reliance and determination to make it a reality. For that, we need first of all to abandon the sense of dependence and the urge to imitate other nations blindly. We need also to rediscover the well-springs of our own native strength, the rich endowments of our shared culture and spiritual tradition.

We must reawaken the dormant Spirit of India.