What India will be in 2020?

Ten years is too long a period for one or the other. Even our demographic projections, based on the most reliable data and well-documented trends, are only able to estimate the country's population a single decade hence and within a range of 100 million people. How then shall we hazard a projection of the harder to measure eventualities?

The second decade of the 21st Century lies behind a barrier that is impenetrable by statistical probes. Looking backwards, we become aware of how limited our horizon of certitude really is. In the mid-1960s, when India was confronted with the threat of widespread famine and was perennially dependent on foreign food aid to feed its people, who among the most visionary of us could have imagined that within such a short period food grain production would double and the country would be having significant surpluses? Who could have anticipated the sheer speed of Japan's rise in the 1970s and 1980s or its equally surprising stagnation during the 1990s? In 1980, who could anticipate the Personal Computers revolution that was to follow just two years later? In 1983, when India's total software exports were only $12 million, who could imagine that they would multiply 500 times in 17 years and the country would be recognized around the world as a major IT power? In early 1989, who could foresee that the fall of the Berlin Wall, the end of the Cold War, the break up of the USSR and the entire Eastern Bloc would all occur within 24 months? Even a visionary like Microsoft's founder Bill Gates admits that he was unable to grasp the enormous potential of the Internet until it had already spawned a global revolution. The growth rate of our cities, which mirrors global trends of urbanization, is 25 per cent lower today than what we predicted just five Years ago.

Planning and prediction over such long time horizons as one decadeis  beyond our capacity, but we do possess a still greater human endowment that can enable us to envision the real possibilities and to perceive the necessary actions we need to take to convert those possibilities into realities.

Call it vision or imagination, or aspiration, or anything else, it is this faculty that most differentiates us from other species and constantly drives the evolutionary progress of humanity. Vision requires a subtle blend of humility and the courage to dare.

For a vision to be realizable, it must bring into view the untapped potentials and unutilized opportunities that await exploitation both domestically and internationally, as well as the problems and challenges that impede our progress. Indeed, it is the forces which oppose our progress that generate the necessary pressure compelling us to strive harder. They may even prove to be the best indices of what will be achieved.

In envisioning a better future, we should not make the mistake of dwelling on what we lack rather than on what we possess, for India today possesses both the capacities and the opportunities to achieve a state of super-abundance. The effective strategy should focus on fully utilizing the material, human, technological and social resources that we possess in the most rapid, efficient and organized manner.

A realizable vision  identified the catalytic forces that can be harnessed to accelerate the nation's development, as well as the obstacles that must be overcome, and anachronisms and out-dated attitudes done away with, in order to advance rapidly. It  frankly own past errors and troublesome propensities, but with faith in our capacity to learn from the past and change–as indeed we are now changing–with ever increasing speed. In a realizable vision, there is no room for lofty optimism based on the premise that everything will turn out for the best regardless of what we decide or how we act. But, equally, there can be no scope for extreme pessimism based on ideas that deprive us of the freedom and power to determine our own future. Our vision  expressed  the nation's aspirations, determination and commitment for self-realization.

We began our visioning exercise by cataloguing the untapped potentials and under-utilized resources that are available to the nation, and then turn our attention to the present problems and emerging opportunities which constitute the raw materials from which we  fashion a better future for our country and its people.

In formulating our vision of the future India, it is important to see beyond the limits of the immediate past to rediscover the greatness that is India. Although the present Republic of India is a young developing nation, our people have a rich and illustrious history as one of the longest living civilizations in the world.
In 1835, even the British historian and politician, Lord Macaulay, admitted before the British Parliament:
"I have traveled across the length and breadth of India and I have not seen one person who is a beggar, who is a thief. Such wealth I have seen in this country, such high moral values, people of such caliber… the very backbone of this nation, which is her spiritual and cultural heritage….."

Thus, it would be wrong to state that in 1947 India started to construct a modern nation from scratch. Rather, it began the process of rediscovering its rich cultural and spiritual values that had formed the foundation of India in the past. It is on this foundation that we formulated our vision of India 2020.

It is indeed a challenge to formulate a cohesive vision for India in 2020. Therefore, we thought it appropriate to seek inspiration from one who had a clear vision and possessed the gift to articulate it in a manner that has inspired the hearts and minds of countless Indians..